"In October 2024, the ECB announced its third consecutive rate cut to ease its restrictive
monetary policy, and we believe that a new momentum has opened up for the European real
estate market. Indeed, this quarter we have seen a thaw in certain real estate indicators."
Henry-Aurélien NATTER, MRICS, Research Director
Global growth forecasts currently stand at +3.2% in 2024, and are set to remain at this level next year. For the time being, the “soft landing” scenario remains the most likely, while that of a global recession is receding. However, a number of risks remain. GDP momentum could suffer from a lack of productivity gains in the years ahead, regional conflicts could escalate, and a return to trade and industrial protectionism continues to loom over long-term growth prospects.
GDP growth in the Eurozone is forecast at +0.8% in 2024, and we anticipate a rebound in economic activity (+1.2%) in 2025. Despite a downward revision to the growth outlook compared to the previous quarter, we believe that the economy will strengthen over time as the restrictive effects of the ECB’s monetary policy gradually ease. Thus, Spain’s GDP should grow at +2.9% in 2024 and +2.1% in 2025, France (+1.1% and +0.9%), Belgium (+1.1% and +1.5%), Italy (+0.6% and +1.0%), the Netherlands (+0.5% and+1.4%) and Germany (-0.1% and +0.5%).
Eurozone inflation reached 1.7% year-on-year in September 2024, 0.8 points lower than in June 2024. Core inflation was stable at 2.7% in September 2024. Against this backdrop, the ECB decided to cut its key rates by a further 25 basis points at its September and October 2024 meetings.
Sources used throughout the document: PRAEMIA REIM Research & Strategy data, Immostat, CBRE, Savills, BNP PRE, Euroconstructeur, JLL, Knight Frank, MSCI, Oxford Economics, Eurostat, Econpol Europe, OECD, IMF, Stabel, NSI, CZSO, DST, Destatis, Stat, CSO, Statistics, INE, INSEE, DZS, ISTAT, CSB, Statistics Lithuania, Statec, KSH, CBS, Statistik Austria, Stat Poland, INE, INSEE, Statistics Finland, SCB, SSB, BFS, ONS, STR, Operators, national e-commerce associations, Statista.
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